# This guy should be in Vegas (revisited)

You get a letter in the mail predicting the winner of a, like, the heavyweight championship match. And you don’t take it seriously, thinking it’s a prank from a friend, I guess, and you find out, however, that the prediction is correct. Then you receive subsequent letters predicting a few days beforehand the winners of various contests or other events. The letters correctly predict the winners of the heavyweight championship match, the World Series, The NBA finals, the presidential election, the world chess championship, the NCAA basketball finals and the Rose Bowl. Pretty good, huh? Shortly after the Rose Bowl, you receive a letter stating that if you send \$10,000 to a certain address one week before the Super Bowl, you’ll receive a letter with the winner of that event. He’s been right seven straight times, so the question is: Should you pay the money OR how did he predict the winners each time?

### 2 guesses to This guy should be in Vegas (revisited)

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• Julie

If you are referring the the Great Plains Gurus that write for the famous Pink Sheet, you’d pay the money and crush your man, because they are the epitome of prognostication – for as their slogan goes, “They are Hot, Hot, Hot!”

• Jon

Surprised no one has attempted to answer this…

If you send out letters to a number of people). Put one team on 50% and the other team on the other 50%, half are going to be correct. You then do the same thing for the next event with the half the got the winner of the last event, just rinse and repeat until you send the final letter. You just fiddle with the numbers to account for the amount of times you intend to send preceding letters and how many people you want to be in the ‘pool’ of people at the end to increase your chances that someone will send you \$10,00… scamming 101