Beach Day by Rodger Bliss
July 2024

Three Doors

You are the contestant. Monty Hall says, “Pick a door.” Go ahead, pick a door. You pick door number two. OK. Monty Hall says, “OK. You’ve picked Door Number Two.” Now, in the real game, he offered you cash, whatever. We simplified it for the RiddleDude audience. He says, “I’m going to show you what’s behind one of the doors that you didn’t pick.” “I’m going to show you what’s behind Door Number One” and he shows you that it’s a ’63 Dart. He then says, “Do you want to switch your choice from Door Number Two to Door Number Three or stay with your pick?” What should you do? What choice will give you the best odds of winning the big prize?

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2 guesses to Three Doors

  • Rool

    If he host opened door # 1 KNOWING that it contained a silly prize (I assumed this knowing Monty Hall), then I would switch, this will double my original probability of having chosen the right door from 33.33% (1 out of 3) to 66.66% (2 out of 3). A bit tricky to explain why…

    If door # 1 was opened randomly by the host between Door #1 and Door #3, changing my door won’t change much.

  • Dude

    Change your door. You had a 1/3 chance of winning, by switching your odds change to 2/3. You double your chances of winning. Believe it!

    Great job, Rool! You’re today’s winner.